Goldman’s economists estimated that annualised quarter-on-quarter growth will accelerate to 10% in the third quarter next year from just 2% in the second quarter, assuming that China starts reopening in April. “We think Chinese growth is likely to display a similar pattern next year,” the Goldman economists said. Monetary policy will normalise upon reopening, with interest rates expected to “drift higher” as credit demand picks up, they said. Property investment will likely remain “sluggish”, contracting 10% in 2023, deeper than this year’s estimated 9% decline, they said. Weakening global demand means exports will probably shrink 2% in 2023 after rising 8.5% this year, Goldman estimated.
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