By Patricia Ranald*Australia is about to play host to negotiators from 14 countries involved in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) over six days in Brisbane from Saturday. This means in negotiating IPEF the US will not offer increased market access to Australia or other member countries. India has opted out of the trade pillar but says it will sign up to the other pillars. It has promised this for the IPEF, and both civil society and business organisations have been invited to present their views to IPEF negotiators in Brisbane. It remains to be seen whether all IPEF countries will commit to these goals without the carrot of access to the US market, and how commitments would be enforced unless they were legally binding.
Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that is generally down-beat today. Driving the rise was the expectation that petrol prices would rise further. The RBNZ will release the results of its own survey of consumer expectations later today. Also later today, the REINZ will release its October house price data and it is expected to be deflationary. The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».2 months ago Interest.co.nz
And a new geography of energy flows is emerging. Slowing global flowsAfter a strong Covid recovery, growth in global trade flows is easing. Container shipping data to November shows that international movements are reducing, suggesting some further weakness ahead in world trade flows. And export growth from leading Asian economies – from Singapore to Taiwan and South Korea – that tend to lead global trade flows is now in negative territory. We are already seeing Chinese tourists beginning to move, trade flows may follow.19 days ago Interest.co.nz
But the ebbing global economic tide may make some of these structural shifts more challenging to navigate. This is partly a reflection of post-Covid disruptions easing, but importantly also reducing demand as the global economy slows. ‘It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked’, Warren BuffettThese structural shifts in the global economy have accelerated over the past few years. Weaker/negative growth in global trade flows will add zero sum dynamics to global competition. An ebbing global economic tide adds complexity and risk to what is already a challenging world.2 months ago Interest.co.nz